Sunstein on Animal Welfare Cascades

Sunstein, Cass R., “’It’s A Cookbook’: Animal Welfare Cascades.” Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. 21-48, June 14, 2021.

• The title of this article draws upon a Twilight Zone episode where aliens who are visiting the earth possess a book with the originally confidence-inspiring title, "To Serve Man." A second Twilight Zone episode is referenced, where Martians keep humans as zoo animals.

• Sunstein explores the possibility, which he welcomes, that we will see a swift, massive shift for the better in our treatment of animals.

• Drawing on work by Timur Kuran (of Private Truths, Public Lies fame) and others, Sunstein identifies four factors that help to produce swift turnabouts: (1) preference falsification; (2) diverse thresholds; (3) interdependencies; and (4) group polarization. 

• Preference falsification is where people, in public, misrepresent their true beliefs, perhaps because of societal oppression or just an interest in matching what others claim to believe. Diverse thresholds is the notion that some people are willing to be ice-breakers, willing to publicize their true beliefs even when there is no evident support; others will join in as the scale of the minority opinion grows. [Note the emperor's new clothes example: everyone publicly lied about the emperor's clothing, until one child spoke the truth -- the rest then joined in.]

• "Interdependencies" refer to the complex connections among people and those varying thresholds, suggesting that very similar conditions could nonetheless result in extremally different outcomes due to small changes in interdependencies. Group polarization recognizes that when people holding similar ideas get together, the group often moves in a more "radical" direction, because of information exchange and/or a desire for individuals to develop and maintain a strong reputation within their group. 

• The four factors, their complexity and their interactions, mean that accurate predictions cannot be expected about social revolutions. "We might think that a practice was bound to change, but it really was not. It happened to change. The same is true if it does not fall. It happened not to change [p. 7]."

• A side note (page 8) on preference falsification. Preferences might be endogenous with respect to the status quo -- and carnism is a pretty entrenched status quo! People might be accepting of the status quo, not noticing the water they swim in -- though that acceptance could itself change when alternatives are brought to their attention.

• With respect to preference falsification, many people must have more-or-less unspoken or unacknowledged reservations about our treatment of animals, but are loath to bring up those reservations or give them much sway. Sunstein recounts the extreme vitriol (including death threats) sent his way when he was undergoing Senate confirmation for his former government post, based on his exaggerated reputation for being excessively animal-friendly. He indicates that he has held back somewhat on animal welfare in the wake of the vituperation. 

• With respect to animal welfare, the four factors suggest that an increase in vegetarianism, for instance, could become contagious. Pro-animal acts by celebrities, or trusted individuals, or even unexpected people ("surprising validators [p. 10],” like macho vegan athletes), can be helpful in initiating a cascade. 

• The movement for a more just relationship with animals will transform preferences, not just reveal them.